MFG January 2022 Comments
Full Employment in the US!
‘The Nation’s unemployment rate fell in December to 3.9%.’ Star Tribune January 8, 2022 page B3
John Paulsen, CIO of Leuthold Group explained 5 years ago ‘if the Unemployment Rate is below 5%, there is no more labor to put to work in the economy and a slowdown is around the corner.’
Over 20% US Stock returns for 2021 making new All Time Highs!
‘Yes, we are in a huge-perhaps unprecedented-equity market bubble, and it keeps getting bigger and bigger.’ David Rosenberg Barons Jan 3, 2022.
Stifel Nicolas Chief Economist December 2021 predicts the ‘US stock market to climb another 20% before the largest bubble in US history pops.’
‘From before the Global Pandemic in December 2020 through December 2022, the US stock market climbed 45%. If you removed the 5 FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) the return would have been 0%. This is the narrowest market since 1999.’ Jeffrey Gundlach, Double Capital January 7, 2022 MarketWatch.
Inflation hit 40 year high of 7%!
My opinion is the US Federal Reserve Bank will be forced to tighten monetary policy. Interest rates heading higher? If so, John Paulsen says this is the second sign of a slowdown around the corner.
Supply Chain Disruptions?
‘Expect a bloodbath in Used Car values into 2023 as one of many disturbances out in the world.’ Kathy Wood ARK Investments MarketWatch 1/11/22
Emerging Market stocks posted losses for 2021, even though those markets are growing faster than the United States and Europe. Emerging Market stocks sell at half the price of US Stocks. I believe this remains a terrific opportunity.
We have also found good opportunities in private debt and private equity as well as European Equities.
Disclosure: The information and opinions presented here are those of Wade McFee and are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The opinions, views and information expressed in this commentary are subject to change without notice based on market conditions and other factors. You should contact your investment representative, attorney, accountant or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation
Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results
Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic stability, and differences in accounting standards.