MFG June 2022 Comments

As I have been saying, 2022 will end up a Recession year, which tends to be a good time to buy stocks.

‘US 1st Quarter GDP shrank by 1.5% and Federal Reserve Bank GDP now forecast for 2nd Quarter is 0% and falling.’ Atlanta Fed June 16,2022.

‘Now a Technical Recession is 2 Quarters in a row of negative GDP.’ Forbes January 7, 2022.

By mid July 2022 the actual US Recession will most likely make the newspapers. 

Capital Group April 2, 2022 says ‘The good news is that recessions generally haven’t been very long. Our analysis of 10 cycles since 1950 shows that recessions have lasted between eight and 18 months, with the average spanning about 11 months.’

Thus, we might already be 1/2 way through this recession!

Capital Group goes on to say ‘During a recession, the stock market typically continues to decline sharply for several months. It then often bottoms out about six months after the start of a recession, and usually begins to rally before the economy starts humming again. (Keep in mind, these are market averages and can vary widely between cycles.)’

So, as we have been underweight stocks for quite some time, we have been adding stocks as our Wealth Plans allow this quarter.

Interest rates continue to climb with ‘30-year conventional mortgage rates hitting 7% June 5th. They are back down to 6.5% today.’ 

I believe the worst may be over for this interest rate spike.

Internationally, things could not be worse with high inflation, trade problems, supply problems, and the tragic war in the Ukraine where CNN June 11th reported ‘Ukraine taking 200 casualties and 1000 injuries each day.’ 

As my 9-year-old Grandson Noah remarked, ‘it’s summer only 1 time each year, I’m going to enjoy it!’ Hopefully you will too!

Disclosure: The information and opinions presented here are those of Wade McFee and are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The opinions, views and information expressed in this commentary are subject to change without notice based on market conditions and other factors. You should contact your investment representative, attorney, accountant or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation

Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results

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